Is Alexander Gustafsson’s retirement going to stick? What factors give us the best hope of predicting that, and which reasons make the most sense for coming back? Retired UFC and WEC fighter Danny Downes joins MMA Junkie columnist Ben Fowlkes to discuss in this week’s Trading Shots.

* * * *

Fowlkes: Remember when Alexander Gustafsson said that if he couldn’t beat Anthony Smith, he might have to retire? Turns out maybe that was more honest career assessment than attempted burn.

Late in a seesaw fight that saw both men capture temporary advantages, Smith got the takedown, took Gustafsson’s back, and then finished with the rear-naked choke. Gustafsson then left his gloves in the cage and told us, “The show is over, guys.”

He expanded on his retirement reasoning after the fight, and yeah, it made some sense. But I have to admit that Jon Jones was the one who most perfectly captured my thoughts on it in a tweet that praised Gustafsson’s contributions to the sport, but only after beginning with the sentence: “Honestly I don’t believe you.”

It’s so hard to buy anyone’s retirement the first time around. Especially when they’re 32 and can clearly still beat some people. What odds do you give Gustafsson to stay retired? Does owning a gym make him more likely to come back? I mean, look at Urijah Faber …

Downes: You really tried to push a square peg through a round hole there Ben. “How can I connect Urijah Faber and Alexander Gustafsson? I know, they’re gym owners!”

I don’t think being a gym owner specifically has anything to do with retirement lengths. Rather, it’s the broader economic security and enjoyment you can have in your post-fighting career. Running a gym isn’t always the most profitable and can be very tedious. When you’re used to training and fighting all day, trying to hammer out a scheduling spreadsheet doesn’t exactly get you going.

I really do think a lot of fighters come back out of sheer boredom. I’ve talked about it before, but my first post-retirement jobs were barista and stock boy at a liquor store. I was thankful for the work and having a means to pay my bills, but I’d be lying if I said they were the most stimulating. My MMA paychecks weren’t the biggest, but there was a certain sense of accomplishment. Plus I was able to wear sweatpants like 90 percent of the time.

As for Gustafsson, I say there’s a 75 percent chance he stays retired. That’s unusually high, I admit, but I think this one will stick.

Gustafsson knows he’s still a very good fighter, but that’s not enough. Unless he can be champion or challenge for the belt, he doesn’t want to do it. Being a top 10 fighter or a gatekeeper isn’t the life he wants. It’s easier to get up and put yourself through the rigors of a training camp when you’re on the rise and still have dreams of a shiny gold belt. How do you do that when the motivation is to just hang on for a few more paydays?

Even though Gustafsson can still perform at a high level, I understand why he’s hanging the gloves up. Faber, on the other hand, puzzles me. He has a solid legacy and seems to be out there living that “suns out, guns out” lifestyle.

Then again maybe it’s not such a terrible idea. We’ve joked about the Vitor Belfort “Legends Tour,” but what’s wrong with some of the names of yesteryear getting some more cage time? Faber doesn’t look like your average 40-year-old dude.

Fowlkes: Hold on, aren’t you the same guy who compared working in a fight gym after retirement to being a recovering alcoholic with a job as a bartender?

That’s what owning a gym has to do with it. Faber is in there with his Alpha Male bros day in and day out. You don’t think that made him more likely to decide that he still can and still wants to fight?

When we look at MMA retirements that were successful the first time, we see a lot of people who didn’t just stop fighting – they changed their whole lives. Brian Stann went to business school. Julie Kedzie went and got an MFA at the nation’s most prestigious writing workshop. You forged a career that allowed you to indulge your love of beer snobbery.

Point is, if you hang around in MMA I think there’s probably a greater chance you’ll decide to get back into MMA. At least, that’s the view from the outside.

I understand how it might be hard to find the motivation to go out there and be one of the best light heavyweights. Especially for Gustafsson, who now has two losses to the champ and one to a top young contender. But we’ve seen fighters in this position before who manage to remake themselves in another weight class or as another type of fighter.

The vast majority of the fighters we watch every week will never be UFC champ or even get a chance to fight for the title. Still, they can have good careers and find meaning and value in them. Is the difference all in what you tell yourself about what the unknowable future might bring? Or is it more about your own ability to trick yourself into believing it?

Downes: How dare you use my metaphors against me! Yes, I did make that comparison and I stand by it. For me, being in the gym was a constant temptation to jump back in the game. My life was centered around that building for years, and suddenly I felt like a stranger. While I was having an existential crisis, everyone else was trying to get through training camp.

At the same time, I didn’t divorce myself entirely from the sport. Shortly after retiring, I was writing for UFC Magazine, UFC.com, and bickering with you every Sunday. Julie Kedzie was still working with Invicta throughout her MFA program. We found ways to be in the sport without competing. It’s unrealistic to assume fighters will totally disown and ignore MMA once they decide to retire.

Different fighters have different expectations for how and why they compete. Most young fighters imagine themselves as future champions and let their egos hold them back. A guy like Ben Askren spent years in ONE FC because he wasn’t going to let Dana White bully him. Nate Diaz will sit out years to get the payday he thinks he deserves. Bob Sapp is out there just trying to cash checks.

Maybe Faber really thinks he can be bantamweight champion. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect him to publicly say it. “Ben, I know I’m past my prime, but I might as well get some extra articles in the Sacramento Bee and a sweet afterparty at Illusions Ultra Lounge!”

It seems like a fighter either retires too early or too late. We may have to wait a long while to know for sure how Gustafsson does. On July 13th we’ll find out which one applies to Faber. I look forward to hearing your opinion then.

Ben Fowlkes is MMA Junkie and USA TODAY’s MMA columnist. Danny Downes, a retired UFC and WEC fighter, is an MMA Junkie contributor who has also written for UFC.com and UFC 360. Follow them on twitter at @benfowlkesMMA and @dannyboydownes.