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UFC 227 co-main breakdown: Cejudo has paths to victory, but is Johnson just too much?

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down UFC 227’s top bouts, and today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC 227 takes place Saturday at Staples Center in Los Angeles, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following preliminary-card bouts on FX and UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

Demetrious Johnson (27-2-1 MMA, 15-1-1 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’3″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
  • Last fight: Submission win over Ray Borg (Oct. 7, 2017)
  • Camp: AMC Pankration (Kirkland, Wash.)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ 5 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Incredible speed
+ Superb footwork
^ Finds and creates angles
+ Diverse arsenal of attack
^ Variates timing and technique
+ Adjusts well throughout the fight
+ Creative clinch game
^ Stifles, strikes, sets up takedowns
+ Excellent transitional grappler

Henry Cejudo (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 64″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Sergio Pettis (Dec. 2, 2017)
  • Camp: Fight Ready MMA (Arizona)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Olympic wrestling gold medalist (U.S.)
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ Bronze Gloves boxing champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Solid footwork
+ Improved overall striking
^ Coming forward or off of the counter
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid grips/hand-fighting
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 100 percent takedown defense rate

Summary:

The rematch theme for UFC 227 continues in the co-main event as Demetrious Johnson squares off with Henry Cejudo for the second time.

Already holding the record for most title defenses amongst UFC champions, Johnson will attempt to further cement himself into the history books with another successful showing. Seeking to spoil those plans is Cejudo, a former Olympian who wants to make good on his second attempt at UFC gold.

In Cejudo’s first try to dethrone the flyweight king back at UFC 197, he came up short, falling within the first round after failing to get going in the clinch. Since then, however, we have only seen Cejudo continue to evolve his game.

Initially coming onto the scene implementing somewhat of a stick-and-move curriculum, Cejudo seldom threw himself out of position, packing cross-hook combinations that he often punctuated with hard kicks to the body. But in his first fight back from defeat (against Joseph Benavidez), the former freestyle wrestler displayed an upgraded muay Thai arsenal from his time spent at CSA in Northern California. And in his fight with Wilson Reis last year, Cejudo took things to another level, coming out in a sharp karate stance that he picked up while working down in Brazil with the Pitbull brothers (Bellator’s Patricio and Patricky).

Showing off an improved sense of range, Cejudo appears more capable of timing and countering his opponents precisely with palpable speed and power. Considering the success that John Dodson found with countering the incredibly fast champion, it’s hard to deny that Cejudo’s heavy hands don’t have a path to stinging Johnson in an exchange. Still, the odds are not in his favor should he try and play the waiting game with the man known as “Mighty Mouse.”

Since entering the organization in 2011, we have seen steady but tangible improvements from Johnson.

Demonstrating a preternatural sense of range, Johnson has been able to apply his speed to his skills inside the octagon, seamlessly finding angles from both stances. Not only can the flyweight champ fight from each side, but he can also shift smoothly between southpaw and orthodox as he attacks in combination. Constantly variating his looks and levels to attain information, Johnson will make a majority of his reads within the first round.

Taking what he learned from his opponent back to his corner, Johnson will then receive world-class instruction from chief cornerman Matt Hume, whom Johnson responds to both between the rounds and while the fight is in play. Perhaps this video game-like behavior shouldn’t be a surprise given Johnson’s personality, but the efficiency he offers is a real problem that all who approach will have to try and crack.

For those reasons, I will be curious to see if Cejudo attempts to slow things down in the clinch.

Despite things backfiring inside of this space the last time they tangled, Cejudo traditionally has done well at stifling his opponents in the clinch with fundamental hand-fighting and controls. And when he’s able to establish a body lock, the former freestyle wrestler is quick to use those opportunities to hit inside trips. But as we saw in their first bout, Johnson is difficult to tie up with or hold down.

A flow master and multi-tasker in transition, there is no better examplesof Johnson’s brilliance than when watching the evolution of his game inside of the clinch.

Dating back to his first fight with Dodson, we have seen Johnson intelligently adjust, taking control of battles from inside of the clinch. Using a myriad of grips to trips, as well as slick strikes into high-crotch hikes, Johnson has developed a voracious taste for breaking his opponents in close. Even if Johnson’s opponent’s specialty is submission fighting, the champion has no issue in following his foes to the mat, effortlessly passing and floating to his favored spot that is the mounted crucifix.

Should Cejudo get stuck on the bottom, then we will more than likely get a good glimpse of how much his MMA grappling is coming along. Cejudo has shown capable of playing positions soundly from topside against quality grapplers, but I’m not sure how much dictating he’ll be able to enforce with the scrambling that’s synonymous with Johnson’s fights.

The oddsmakers and public seem to have no issue in backing the champion in this rematch, listing Johnson -550 and Cejudo +425 as of this writing.

Considering the outcome of their first fight and Johnson’s dominance since, this spread does not surprise me. That said, we need to be careful not to get swept up in the general narrative – as this is MMA, after all.

Beyond the obvious intangible of Johnson just having a bad night, Cejudo does have multiple paths that could earn him the opportunity to upset the world. Aside from his previously mentioned chances to sting the champ on the feet with his newfound countering style, Cejudo could also remind us how he earned his Olympic gold medal by coming out and attempting to recreate Johnson’s early Achilles heel of suffocating top pressure.

The problem, however, is that those opportunities – from succeeded control time to getting stung by stray shots – have been happening less and less for Johnson in recent years. So until Johnson bumps up to bantamweight or is met by a hybrid force like, for example, T.J. Dillashaw, then I’m going to have a real tough time picking against the flyweight champ in the future. As for this fight, I see Johnson avoiding any of Cejudo’s surprises on the feet by instead looking to give his foe his first submission loss come the later rounds.

Official pick: Johnson inside the distance

For more on UFC 227, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.

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