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UFC 227 main-event breakdown: Who’s got the edge in Dillashaw-Garbrandt rematch?

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MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down UFC 227’s top bouts, and today, we look at the main event.

UFC 227 takes place Saturday at Staples Center in Los Angeles, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following preliminary-card bouts on FX and UFC Fight Pass.

T.J. Dillashaw (15-3 MMA, 11-3 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Cody Garbrandt (Nov. 5, 2017)
  • Camp: The Treigning Lab (California)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ 3x NCAA qualifier (wrestling)
+ 7 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Effectively switches stances
+ Pulls and returns punches well
^ Often punctuates combos with hooks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Solid scrambler/transitional grappler

Cody Garbrandt (11-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’7″ Age: 27 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
  • Last fight: TKO loss to T.J. Dillashaw (Nov. 4, 2017)
  • Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC bantamweight champion
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 32-1 as an amateur boxer
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Creates angles and openings
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Solid head movement/reaction times
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Scrambles/gets up well

Summary:

The main event for UFC 227 features a heated rematch for the bantamweight title between T.J. Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt.

A two-time champion who is still seeking to cement his status to the masses, Dillashaw can silence his critics should he best his former teammate once again. Garbrandt, who is undoubtedly more motivated than ever, will be essentially doubling down on himself by risking a second loss to a sitting champion. But given victory was within his grasp back at UFC 217, it’s hard to blame him.

In their initial meeting, we were pretty much privy to a tale of two fights. In the first round, we saw Garbrandt use his potent countering threats.

Utilizing feints and forward-pressure to bait exchanges, Garbrandt – with eyes wide open – will subtly take angles and opportunities to capitalize. Although the 27-year-old talent will usually enter off of his right hand, he does a lot of his cleanup-hitting with his left hook. And with his counters on a hair-trigger, we saw why many, including myself, were picking Garbrandt to find his shot on the shifting Dillashaw.

Still, Dillashaw was able to survive (with some assistance from the sound of the horn, of course).

Come the second round, Dillashaw appeared to have his legs back under him as he began to get back in step. And sure enough, after listening to chief cornerman Duane “Bang” Ludwig’s advice, Dillashaw incorporated more kicks into his repertoire, catching Garbrandt with his lead foot off of a level-changing feint, which, at the very least, shook up the then-champion’s senses and allowed Dillashaw’s shifting style to come to life.

Like many fighters who are naturally orthodox but switch to southpaw, Dillashaw typically conducts traffic off of his right hand. Whether he is setting up left crosses and power kicks from southpaw, or favoring his uppercuts and overhands from orthodox, it’s Dillashaw’s right hand – which is often used in a checking fashion – that is a key to his offense.

Using it to off-beat his opponent’s offensive rhythms, Dillashaw will add to the disarray by incorporating subtle but effective shifts that change the stance and, more importantly, the angle of his attacks. Nevertheless, Dillashaw’s shifting style is aggressive by nature, which means that he will always be inherently at risk for the counters coming back at him in a styles matchup like this.

With that in mind, I suspect wrestling could play a potential X-factor in their second meeting.

Both men were wrestling standouts (albeit at different levels) before stepping into the world of combat sports. But given their past proclivities, I have to imagine that Dillashaw will be the more likely man to shoot. Going back to his base a bit more in recent bouts, Dillashaw primarily uses his wrestling to score late-round takedowns, something that he may go to in tight frames.

Though the statistics will tell you Dillashaw has tried and failed once already in regards to taking Garbrandt down, that attempt appeared to be a half-hearted one with a bigger picture in mind. Committing to his trap-setting sensibilities, Dillashaw’s obvious takedown attempt was able to get Garbrandt to bite on his second level-changing offering, which he then used the opportunity to come up high for the finish.

Should the champion decide to go the other way and look for meaningful takedowns, I will be curious to see if Garbrandt’s perfect takedown percentage holds true. The Ohio-born slugger wields a sprawl that seems to be on the same type of hair-trigger as his counter shots. Offensively, Garbrandt keeps a double-leg at the ready, primarily using it to reset or recover when catching himself over-committing to punches on the inside.

Albeit a small sample-size, the former champ appears to have good positional awareness and grappling IQ on the mat. However, I still slightly lean toward Dillashaw in regards to grappling advantages given his past proclivities and proven transitional savvy. Nevertheless, should either man end up succeeding in grounding the other, I’m not sure how long you can count on the stanzas lasting given their scrambling and getup abilities.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be just as split as me when it comes to backing a winner, listing Dillashaw -115 and Garbrandt -105 as of this writing.

Don’t let my perceived opinion above or the opinions of others sway you – this is a close fight to call by all metrics. On paper, these two match up like stylistic dynamite in the sense that both men’s success at delivering violence is dependent on the other doing what he is most dangerous at: initiating and punctuating exchanges.

Off paper, there are the intangibles of physical health and mental emotion. Garbrandt was reportedly rushing to mend his back heading into their initial bout back in November of last year, but claims to be in top form for the rematch. Should you give credence to that, then we will arguably see a sharper and more confident version of Garbrandt than before.

That said, forecasting anything between these two can feel near impossible given the range of emotions that have been shown and established. They’ve each played the matador and each played the bull emotionally in their fights, and that’s what I believe it comes down to here.

Regardless if Garbrandt can dust off the shoes he wore against Dominick Cruz or not, his counters will be live for as long as this battle lasts. However, I find myself siding with the more varied, momentum-based stylings of Dillashaw, who may only end up needing one small opening to start running away with the fight, outworking Garbrandt down the stretch with the possibility of scoring a stoppage late.

Official pick: Dillashaw by decision

For more on UFC 227, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.

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