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UFC 251 breakdown: Can Max Holloway take title back from Alexander Volkanovski?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 251.

UFC 251 takes place Saturday at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.

Alexander Volkanovski (21-1 MMA, 8-0 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Max Holloway (Dec. 14, 2019)
  • Camp: Freestyle MMA/City Kickboxing (Australia)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Dangerous right hand
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Dirty boxing, elbows, knees
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Excellent top game
^ Aggressive ground striker

Max Holloway (21-5 MMA, 17-5 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’11” Age: 28 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
  • Last fight: Decision loss to Alexander Volkanovsi (Dec. 14, 2019)
  • Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Attacks off angles/manages distance well
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ 85 percent takedown defense rate
+ Deceptively counters clinches/grappling
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition

Point of interest: Revisiting the striking scene

The co-main event for UFC 251 features an intriguing rematch for the featherweight title.

In their first meeting, Alexander Volkanovski was able to shut down a majority of Max Holloway’s momentum with a variating array of leg kicks that were coupled with hard counters and freezing feints. But if you’ve been following the Australian-born Macedonian’s career, then you’ll know that Volkanovski didn’t always fight this way.

An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward fighter who typically approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little issue when having to crash distance with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes that have been typically set up off of prodding jabs.

However, since moving to City Kickboxing in New Zealand, Volkanovski has seemingly sharpened his feints, footwork and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. The 31-year-old champion will now change up his combination approach, doing things like leading with kicks or finishing off combinations with jabs.

Volkanovski also has taken some of the feinting swagger from his City Kickboxing stablemates, showing or throwing away certain shots to land others with a bigger picture in mind. Nevertheless, as effective as Volkanovski’s newfound approach has been (especially in his last couple of fights), he’ll have to be extra careful to not leave any proverbial bread crumbs behind that the building former champ can use to follow him home.

Enter Holloway.

A Hawaiian striking machine who stormed the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight to fight, turned his biggest corner after his 2015 encounter with Cub Swanson.

Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from Holloway, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the exciting fighter makes for a hard read on the feet.

When feeling in stride, the 28-year-old will look to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway hypothetically can take a fight in many different directions.

That all said, it’s the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable. Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway not only will build in his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game.

That said, Holloway will still need to show viable answers to the disruptive leg kicks Volkanovski landed in the first fight if he means to get things going to the body and head. If Holloway doesn’t make the appropriate adjustments early and often, then he may find himself, once again, stuck on a job site with little building supplies to work with.

Next point of interest: Potential grappling warfare

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