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MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts, and today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 137.

UFC Fight Night 137 takes place Saturday at Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo. The main card airs on FS1 following prelims on FS2 and UFC Fight Pass.

Thiago “Marreta” Santos (18-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC)

Thiago Santos (red gloves) and Kevin Holland at UFC 227. (Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0″ Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
• Last fight: Decision win over Kevin Holland (Aug. 4, 2018)
• Camp: TATA Fight Team (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Muay Thai titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Capoeira green rope
+ 12 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and movement
+ Fast hand speed
^ Dangerous hooks and uppercuts
+ Devastating kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved overall grappling
^ Wrestling, transitions, fundamentals
+/-1-1 against UFC southpaws

Eryk Anders (11-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC)

Eryk Anders (red gloves) and Tim Williams at UFC Fight Night 135. (USA TODAY Sports)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Tim Williams (Aug. 25, 2018)
• Camp: Spartan Fitness (Alabama)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ LFA middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Golden Gloves champ (Alabama)
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking flow
^ Dangerous left hand
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Solid takedown ability
+ Good transitional grappling
^ Positional awareness and rides
– Fighting on 6 days notice

Points of interest:

Southpaw pressure vs. the pressure cooker

Between each fighter’s knockout power and stylistic sensibilities, the striking exchanges should be, by and large, the most volatile part of this matchup.

Anders, despite being a bit greener on paper, possesses attributes that can cause problems for Santos. A stalking southpaw, Anders is almost akin to an Abrams tank in the way he calmly comes forward and targets his opponent.

The former University of Alabama football star does his best work when remembering to feint – something that helps him land his patented left cross down the pipe. And though Anders can clearly kick (as we saw in his last outing), I believe his presence will mostly live inside of boxing range, especially when looking at common threads of Santos’ shortcomings.

Still, Anders will need to show an answer for the offense coming his way.

A dynamic striker by nature, Santos can hit as heavy as the hammer tattooed on his chest suggests. With a background in capoeira, the Brazilian’s base shines through in his athletic movement. Almost shuffling laterally, Santos will smoothly switch his stances, fighting equally effective from either side.

Traditionally favoring his patented left Thai kick from the southpaw stance, Santos will also indiscriminately spin or attack legs with vigor, something that Anders will need to show answers to. Though Anders was able to counter off of kicks toward the end of his fight with Tim Williams, he had to suffer some debasing leg kicks, as well as some head kicks that were a bit close for comfort before getting to that point. Against Santos, those lapses in kicking defense are not something that the American will be able to afford.

Opportunistic takedowns

Despite this matchup packing enough explosives to end early, I could see offensive grappling playing an unsuspecting role in this matchup should either party decide to exercise it.

Santos, who is the more pronounced striker of the two, has shown that his cross-training at American Top Team has not been in vain. Occasionally shooting for a takedown of his own, Santos shows the ability to transition both defensively and offensively in a much more confident way since suffering his last submission loss to Eric Spicely. And once the Brazilian banger can achieve a superior position, his ground striking is nothing short of unforgiving.

Nevertheless, I suspect Anders may have a bit more of a motive to mix things up and look for a takedown should the opportunity arise.

The 31-year-old talent may naturally take to striking, but he also demonstrates a solid process on the ground. Having a preternatural feel for transitions, Anders changes his level pretty well in the heat of battle, displaying an ability to chain his takedowns if his initial attempt fails.

Whether Anders is hitting takedowns from the clinch or reactionary shots in the open, his skills and fight IQ shine brightest on the mat. He shows excellent shoulder-pressure that he uses to pin, pass or persuade his opposition into a specific direction. Coupled with his positional awareness and ability to ride while delivering punishing strikes, Anders could make Santos pay for any lapses in defense.

Short-notice intangibles

If MMA itself doesn’t feel like enough of an intangible, then sprinkle in some short-notice opponent switches and watch the proverbial chips fall where they may.

Santos stepping in for an injured Glover Teixeira on roughly one month’s notice wasn’t too crazy given that he was probably still in pretty good shape after fighting and winning at the beginning of August. Whereas Anders, who is also fresh off an August outing, is stepping up on just six days’ notice for this potential five-round affair.

Sure, this fight will contest at 205 pounds, sparing much of what I imagine would have been a hellacious cut to middleweight for Anders. That said, he admittedly was 20-plus pounds over when receiving the call, meaning that he will likely still have a weight-cut to deal with this week. Coupled with the intricacies of peaking for performance, I will be curious to see how sharp Anders is able to start this fight, as well as whether or not he feels he has to pace himself.

Odds and ends

The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the Brazilian, listing Santos -150 and Anders +130 as of this writing.

Despite being a fan of Anders and his ascension as a mixed martial artist, I have a hard time objectively picking him with confidence given both the information and matchup at hand. I believe Anders when he says that he’s in shape and not coming off the couch for this fight, but stepping up in this big of a spot on these terms is a lot to ask of anyone.

Furthermore, I’m not sure how Santos’ aggressive, free-forming attacks will play into Anders’ approach. The 31-year-old American has gotten off to some slow starts as of late, which could either be exacerbated or extinguished by Santos’ explosive onslaughts, depending on how Anders reacts. I hate picking against a guy with the character and abilities of Anders, but unless he can sting Santos with a counter in the early going, then I see the Brazilian’s speed and experience edging out crucial parts of this contest.

Official pick: Santos inside the distance

For more on UFC Fight Night 137, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.