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UFC on ESPN 3 breakdown: A first-round knockout prediction … for Ngannou or Dos Santos?

MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 3.

UFC on ESPN 3 takes place Saturday at Target Center in Minneapolis. The card airs on ESPN.

Francis Ngannou (13-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 258 lbs. Reach: 83″
  • Last fight: Knockout win over Cain Velasquez(Feb 17, 2019)
  • Camp: Xtreme Couture (Las Vegas, NV)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Fair

 

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, crosses, check-hooks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Hard knees/heavy hips
+/-Developing ground game
^ Serviceable transitions/struggles off back

Junior Dos Santos (21-5 MMA, 15-4 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 246 lbs. Reach: 77″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Derrick Lewis(March 9, 2019)
  • Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/boxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 15 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Good counter wrestler
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Shows solid positional awareness

Point of interest: Familiar senses on the feet

The main event in Minneapolis features a heavyweight showdown between two top contenders that have familiar styles on the feet.

Junior Dos Santos, who fights out of a boxing-centric stance, has long been known as a crisp striker through and through. Working behind the pressure of his jabs and left-handed feints, Dos Santos will set up devastating overhands and uppercuts – strikes that comprise the majority of the former champion’s highlight reel.

Though the Brazilian’s right hand is often known as the clean-up hitter, his left is arguably more accurate, especially when applying his hook. Often utilizing his hooks offensively off of his jabs and feints, Dos Santos does a deceptively good job of placing check hooks to cover his tracks or drawing his opponents into them through baiting fakes.

Still, countering will probably be a potent two-way street given the propensity for violence his current counterpart will bring in close quarters.

Enter Francis Ngannou.

A Cameroonian-born Parisian who practically came from nothing, the rise of Ngannou has been fascinating to watch.

A dangerous striking threat who lists himself as an orthodox fighter, the 32-year-old standout occasionally will fight from southpaw when facing wrestlers (though he really hasn’t needed to in his last few outings). Not only does the southpaw stance allow a little more play in the distance department, but it also opens up opportunities for Ngannou to land his counter left cross.

When fighting from orthodox, Ngannou – similar to his current counterpart – also prefers to conduct traffic from his left side, throwing straight or varying his patent up-jabs and check-hooks.

Utilizing feints and pivoting well within close quarters, Ngannou keeps a good sense of space, managing distance firmly when he chooses to. However, as impressive as Ngannou’s movement is, he, too, is not beyond being hit or countered with wrestling shots while coming forward (as seen in his fight with Stipe Miocic), which is what makes the striking dynamic of this battle a compelling one at all ranges.

Next point of interest: Surprise takedowns?

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