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UFC-Sao Paulo in-depth breakdown: Stylistic matchups, fight picks, best bets and fantasy studs

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 119’s main-card bouts.

UFC Fight Night 119 takes place Saturday at Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo. The main card airs on FS1 following prelims on FS2 and UFC Fight Pass.

* * * *

Derek Brunson (17-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC)

Derek Brunson

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77″
  • Last fight: Knockout win over Dan Kelly (June 10, 2017)
  • Camp: Brunson’s MA and Fitness (North Carolina)
  • Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ 3x Division 2 All-American wrestler
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous left kicks and crosses
+ Subtle shuffle-step entries
^ Closes distance and sets up strikes
+ Strong pressure against fence
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Good power-double takedown
^ Chains / transitions from it well
+ Solid pressure from topside
– Sometimes throws self out of position
+/- 3-2 against UFC southpaws

Lyoto Machida (22-7 MMA, 14-7 UFC)

Lyoto Machida

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’1″ Age: 39 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74″
  • Last fight: Knockout loss to Yoel Romero (June 27, 2015)
  • Camp: Kings MMA (California)
  • Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Karate black belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Crafty feints and footwork
^ Deceptive distance closer
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous left kick
+ Good counter wrestling
^ Strong base and balance
– Someimtes struggles from back
+/- Coming off a 28-month layoff
+/- 0-2 against fellow UFC southpaws

Summary:

The main event in Sao Paulo features a pairing of middleweights as Derek Brunson and Lyoto Machida square off.

A top-10 contender who has recently rebounded from losses to the likes of Robert Whittaker and Anderson Silva, Brunson will get another shot at a big name when he travels to Brazil.

Welcoming the American is Machida, a former champion who has been out of competition for the past two years due to an infraction with USADA stemming from April 2016.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two southpaw strikers.

As I often preach in my breakdowns, a meeting of lefties can always be tricky, especially considering that most southpaws predicate their games on facing an opponent of the opposite stance. For this reason, the more “skilled” striker does not always demonstrate their perceived on-paper advantages.

With this in mind, I will be very interested in seeing Machida’s approach. Not only is the Brazilian coming off of a two-fight skid, but those last two losses came at the hands of southpaw fighters.

Still, the dynamic of this matchup has been one that typically favors Machida since Brunson is a come-forward fighter who can sometimes be available for the counter.

If the 39-year old Brazilian’s bottom has not yet dropped out, then Machida may have ample opportunity to attempt counter left hands, a shot that has traditionally troubled Brunson from both stances.

Nevertheless, Brunson will be the more potent striker of the two, and more importantly, he has the pressure to make things uncomfortable for Machida.

Subtly stalking his prey as he utilizes a shuffle-step variation to come forward, Brunson will put himself in prime position to land shots from the power side of his southpaw stance. Having a knack placing powerful kicks, Brunson has also improved his hands over that past few years, being particularly dangerous when punching his way in or out of the pocket.

And considering that Brunson does his best work when forcing his opposition to the fence (a place that has caused problems for Machida in the past), I would not be surprised to see another pressure-heavy approach from the American here.

In Machida’s middleweight title bout with Chris Weidman, we saw the Brazillian initially struggle to get off offensively under the waves of suffocating strikes and takedown stanzas. Should Brunson have similar intentions, I will curious to see how he fairs in the takedown portion of the equation.

Despite having a lower takedown percentage than one might expect, Brunson does a deceptively good job of using his initial shot to force his opponents to the fence; the former All-American wrestler does a decent job of chaining off his attacks from there.

However, it is in that brief space/period of re-wrestling where Machida is most crafty, re-swimming under-hooks or even limp-arming as he attempts to circle to safety. In fact, historically Machida has been hard to take down outside of well-timed shots or an outright out-muscling.

But if Machida is grounded, he is far from impervious.

Although he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Machida has struggled when being put on his back, often displaying a lack of offense or even scrambling ability from the bottom.

Against Weidman, this cost Machida crucial rounds. Against Rockhold and Romero, it cost him brutal stoppages.

Brunson may not have a “game-over” type of ground game, but he can transition well with strikes from topside and plays position when he needs to. That said, if Brunson fails to score takedowns early, then this fight’s propensity to hit strange lulls will likely increase as time goes on.

Not only does Machida bring the lulling intangible with his off-beat stylings, but we also saw Brunson struggle in spots against Anderson Silva, another southpaw who prefers to counter. And even though Machida is the elder fighter who is coming off of a layoff, he is more experienced in five-round affairs than Brunson, who has shown signs of slowing late in fights regardless of winning or losing.

With the oddsmakers opening Bunson in the neighborhood of a -150 favorite, I was slightly surprised the line wasn’t a bit wider, to be honest.

Don’t get me wrong: As a black belt in karate who discovered MMA later in life, watching Machida’s initial rise was one of the most inspirational things I’ve witnessed in this sport. Because of that, part of me will always be rooting for Machida to do well.

And yes, perhaps this is another case of me trying to over-correct the steering wheel in the effort to sway from my biases, but I will once again be reluctantly siding with sensibility since there are ultimately more paths and probabilities for a Brunson victory.

If this matchup were to have happened a few years prior, then I would side with Machida to find a crippling counter shot before the final bell. But now, at 39 and a 28-month layoff at his back, the odds at a successful showing may be steeper than the betting lines suggest. For that reason, I will be staying away from any plays as I observe how this crucial crossroads bout shakes out.

Official pick: Brunson inside the distance

Official outcome: To be determined

Filed under: Featured, News, UFC

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