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UFC 248 breakdown: Can Zhang Weili simply blitz Joanna Jedrzejczyk and expect to win?

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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 248.

UFC 248 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.

Zhang Weili (20-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Jessica Andrade(August 31, 2019)
  • Camp: Black Tiger Fight Club (China)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Shows serviceable wrestling and scrambling
+ Solid transitional grappling
^ Works well from top and bottom

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Michelle Waterson(Oct. 12, 2019)
  • Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ 5x muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 1 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts, half-steps, pivots
+ Technically sound striker
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Accurate jabs and leg kicks
+ Superb defensive and offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning and forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
^ Good getup technique/urgency

Point of interest: Muay Thai mirrors?

The co-main event for UFC 248 features a strawweight title tilt between two ladies who utilize the art of eight limbs, but do so in different ways.

Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang Weili might as well have been built in a lab given all the skills she possesses as a fighter. The newly-minted strawweight champion can either come forward aggressively behind a high guard or counter competently while staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations.

Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang also is not shy in using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 30-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.

However, outside of a natural feel for distance and her previously mentioned high guard, Zhang has shown that she is not beyond being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements. With that in mind, I will be curious to see how the current champ handles a fighter who is very familiar with linear attacks and their associated counters.

Enter Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

A technical striker who is no stranger to performing on the big stage, Jedrzejczyk typically likes to start behind her patented jab. Throwing it actively and accurately, the development of the former champion’s jab dates back to the beginning of her career and has been a crucial tool for her success.

Like many muay Thai strikers transitioning into MMA, Jedrzejczyk was extra mindful of takedowns early on, subsequently avoiding throwing kicks comfortably until her very first UFC strawweight title defense. Now, showing competence and confidence in her anti-grappling abilities, the 32-year-old pro will use her jab more for setups rather than safety, confidently attaching well-placed leg kicks and punches to punctuate her presence.

Considering that her Chinese counterpart also has a penchant for targeting the legs, it will be interesting to see which fighter gets a read on the timing and distance first. I will also be curious to see if Jedrzejczyk returns to her old ways in the sense of shelving kicks early given the takedown counters and close-quarter entries that I suspect Zhang will be looking for.

Next point of interest: Close-quarters combat

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