MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of UFC 224’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event.

UFC 224 takes place Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Amanda Nunes (15-4 MMA, 8-1 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
• Last fight: Decision win over Valentina Shevchenko (Sept. 9, 2017)
• Camp: Ricardo American Top Team (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 3 submission win
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Underrated footwork
+ Improved jab
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good hip awareness
+ Solid top game
+ Heavy ground strikes

Raquel Pennington (9-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’7″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67″
• Last fight: Decision win over Miesha Tate (Nov. 12, 2016)
• Camp: Triple Threat Gym (Colorado)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter: Season 18” alum
+ Regional MMA title
+ Ammateur MMA accolades
+ 1 KO victory
+ 3 submission wins
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Puts together punches well
^ Often punctuates exchanges
+ Accurate jab
+ Stays busy inside of the clinch
^ Improved defensive fundamentals
+ Underrated grappling game
– Coming off of 18-month layoff

Summary:

The main event in Brazil features a battle for the bantamweight title between Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington.

A Brazilian champion who is in search of her third title defense, Nunes will look to continue to put her stamp on the 135-pound weight class in front of her home country. Stepping behind enemy lines to spoil the party is Pennington, a dark horse in the division whose currently riding a four-fight winning streak.

Starting off on the feet, we have a matchup between two sluggers that have steadily refined their games throughout the years.

Training boxing since the age of 16, Nunes has developed her muay Thai arsenal since entering MMA. Initially storming into exchanges (and producing quick results in doing so), Nunes has slowly sharpened her game, smartly adjusting her approach.

Most notably, Nunes has improved her footwork, circling just outside of range as opposed to rushing right in. Intelligently circling or taking the appropriate angles, the champion’s shot selection and accuracy have also improved, making her power more potent in the process.

Another recent development to the 29-year-old’s game has been the presence of her jab. Utilizing it in a measuring fashion, Nunes will now set up her patent cross-hook combinations more efficiently, using the jab to check to the body or head as she enters or exits out of exchanges.

Interestingly enough, Nunes will be facing another bantamweight who is very proficient with her jab.

Enter Pennington, a fighter who – despite her submission victories – many associate with her striking abilities after her performance against Jessamyn Duke on “The Ultimate Fighter.” A smart but scrappy fighter by nature, Pennington will come forward without hesitation, leaning on her feints, footwork and sometimes kicks to enter space. And though her steep kicks can often initiate exchanges, it is Pennington’s jab that often pays her bills on the feet.

Varying her timing and tempo, Pennington will utilize her jab in multiple ways. Whether she is using it to set up combinations or applying it in a checking fashion as she exits exchanges, the 29-year-old challenger maintains a solid sense of herself when operating inside the pocket. In fact, Pennington is typically the one to punctuate striking stanzas, a place where her patented counter right-hand comes into play (as seen in her fight with Holly Holm).

Whenever inside of clinch space, Pennington demonstrates improved defensive fundamentals that help fuel her sensibilities to stay busy with strikes in close. That said, I am not sure how long she will want to stay in that space given the grappling prowess of the champion.

Nunes, who has a background in judo, has also improved her wrestling ability since working with American Top Team. Whether she is shooting in the open or going for takedowns from the clinch, Nunes will be, at the very least, a scoring threat that Pennington will need to respect.

Pennington has shown some upgrades to her offensive wrestling as well, but it’s hard not to give the edge to Nunes in that department. And should the champion end up on top, she wields some of the nastiest ground striking next Cris Cyborg, something that Pennington will have to show an answer for if it gets there. Thankfully for Pennington, she’s no fish out of water when it comes to grappling.

Aside from her durability and composure (which matters when facing Nunes), Pennington is a solid transitional grappler who seems to be both competent and comfortable in many positions. She can stay active off her back while protecting herself and can float positions nicely when on top. Pennington is also good about taking the back in transit, but will have her work cut out for her if she means to out-position Nunes.

The oddsmakers and public don’t seem to respect the challenger’s chances at all, listing Nunes -1000 and Pennington +650 as of this writing.

Despite my pick, I vehemently disagree with the betting odds. Pennington is one of the underrated talents at 135 pounds, whose durability and composure could play a real factor in this fight. If Pennington can survive the initial storms of Nunes, do not be surprised to see her pick up her volume and pressure to work her way back into the fight, stealing rounds in the process (something Pennington does well).

Although the odds alone make me want to officially side with Pennington, I have to concede that Nunes is more than deserved to be the favorite. Her last outing against Valentina Shevchenko – though not the most exciting – was impressive to me nonetheless. It demonstrated Nunes’ ability to go five rounds striking with someone who I hail as one of the best muay Thai stylists and pound-for-pound female fighters.

I’ll be picking Nunes to find her mark by the third round, but a competitive decision that goes either way would not surprise me in the slightest here. Bettors beware, we may be in for a fight that’s a lot closer than the current odds indicate.

Official pick: Nunes inside the distance

For more on UFC 224, check out the MMA Rumors section of the site.