MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of UFC 225’s top bouts, and today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC 225 takes place Saturday at United Center in Chicago, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

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Rafael dos Anjos (28-9 MMA, 17-7 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8″ Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 70″
• Last fight: Decision win over Robbie Lawler (Dec. 16, 2017)
• Camp: RVCA/Gracie Barra (California)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Disciplined pace and pressure
^ Aggressive but intelligent stalker
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Good takedowns against the fence
^ 11-2 when scoring at least one
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Smashes and pashes effectively
+ Improved getup ability
+/- 5-1 against UFC southpaws

Colby Covington (13-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
• Last fight: Decision win over Demian Maia (Oct. 28, 2017)
• Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ 2x NCAA Division I All-American wrestler
+ Pac-10 wrestling champion
+ Multiple grappling acclades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Well-conditiioned athlete
+ Improved overall striking
^ Footwork, combos, head movement
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Chains attempts constantly re-wrestles
+ Tremendous top game
^ Pins, strikes, cooks to submission
+ Superb wrist-rides and positional awareness
+/- 3-0 against UFC southpaws

Summary:

The co-main event in Chicago features a fight for the interim welterweight title between Rafael dos Anjos and Colby Covington.

A former lightweight kingpin who has been wrecking shop since moving to 170 pounds, dos Anjos will now get a chance to join elite company by becoming a two-division UFC champion. Standing in the Brazilian’s way is the brash Covington, a contender who has garnered the attention of many, showing that he is willing to cross any line to get what he wants.

Starting off on the feet, we have a rare pairing of southpaw strikers.

Although this type of matchup typically presents some problems in the form of discomfort and defense (given that most southpaws predicate their games against orthodox opposition), I don’t suspect it will be a sizeable factor for either fighter considering both their styles and the dynamic of the overall matchup.

What I do suspect to be a factor is the fact that both men are pressure-based fighters by trade.

A more flexible pressure fighter, dos Anjos steadily stalks his opponents, working behind feints until finding an opportunity to unleash his shots. Whether dos Anjos is throwing his hard left hands or Thai kicks, he usually counterbalances his attack with a dangerous right hook.

Accustomed to having to slip-and-rip on taller opposition, dos Anjos does well at following his opponents strike retractions back into the pocket – a place where can use his power to bomb from below. Still, the Brazilian will need to respect what’s coming back his way, regardless of any on-paper advantages.

A lifelong wrestler, Covington has been steadily developing solid striking fundamentals that – apart from portions of his last outing – seems to improve from fight to fight. From not crossing his feet to resetting his angles on the outside, Covington will create lanes for his favored kicks and crosses off of his power side – shots that are often set up by his jab.

The 30-year-old American also does a decent job of rolling off of his crosses, keeping his head off the centerline while throwing and moving. Though many will point to Covington’s defensive behavior in his last fight against Demian Maia, I have to imagine that a lot of that can be attributed to his prioritization of takedown defense and pressure (not to mention Maia’s underrated ability to strike and make fights ugly). And when considering Covington’s opponent at hand, I’m sure he won’t be looking to stand for long.

It’s no secret that Covington – a Pac-10 wrestling champion – makes his money on the floor.

A tremendous grappler from topside, Covington uses everything from wrist-rides to leg and lever disruptions to break an opponent’s balance and spirit. Whether he is spiraling out the base of those who try to stand or striking them with impunity from positional rides and pins, Covington is steadily becoming a master chef when it comes to cooking his counterparts underneath him.

Still, the question remains: Can Covington get dos Anjos down enough to win this fight?

Ever since his closely contested encounter with Gleison Tibau, we have seen dos Anjos slowly buy surely close the gaps in his wrestling. Adding in a takedown game that fits nicely into his cage corralling sensibilities, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has proven to be a fully fledged threat. Defensively, dos Anjos has improved his fundamentals from underhooks to hip positioning, as well as wielding an upgraded urgency to his getup game.

That said, it’s hard for me not to shake dos Anjos’ fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov from my head – despite it happening four years ago. Sure, dos Anjos has gotten better in said time, but we still haven’t seen him face an aggressive wrestling threat since locking up with the current lightweight champ.

More importantly, Covington and Nurmagomedov both employ similar takedown variations in regards to their lower-limb attacks – except I believe that the American executes them better. And coupled with the fact the Covington is disciplined about shooting in with his head chest level or toward his opponent’s weak side, then I suspect that the percentages of him being countered while entering space will be significantly lowered.

Should dos Anjos end up on his back, he’s far from a slouch. The accoladed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will offer legitimate threats from kimura sweeps to submissions that Covington will need to be ware of so that he doesn’t fall victim to the positional-based player. But ultimately, ending up on his back is the last place dos Anjos will want to be.

Despite the oddsmakers’ opening lines, the public seems to be swaying with their opinions, listing Covington -115 and dos Anjos -105 as of this writing.

As someone who initially came in leaning toward dos Anjos, I can see why the odds were on his side earlier this week. The former lightweight champ is the superior striking and submission threat on paper, and he will also carry an experience edge in championship rounds. If dos Anjos can defend the initial shots or get up enough times to get his own game going, then perhaps his path to victory will come to fruition even faster than his supporters suspect.

However, I’m not sure how confident I am in the offensive opportunities dos Anjos will have given the looming defensive responsibilities he’ll have to manage within the counter-wrestling department. And, if by that logic both men are forced into a game of human chicken, then who will tire first?

Experience is on the side of dos Anjos while youth may technically be on Covington’s, but I suspect that this will be closer to a competitive wash than some suspect. Dos Anjos, of course, does his due diligence in the strength and conditioning department, working with the likes of Nick Curson. Nevertheless, I suspect that Covington, who has proven he can attempt and score 10-12 takedowns a fight with barely breaking a sweat, can maintain his pace so long as he’s speaking his first language of wrestling.

I’ve yet to pick against dos Anjos in his welterweight run, but I also suspect that he will eventually meet a 170-pound fighter who will either make him look or feel small for the division. And though I don’t mean that statement to come off as some unfair condemnation on the Brazilian’s welterweight ceiling, I do believe that Covington could end up being one of the worse matchups for dos Anjos in this division. Unless dos Anjos and dissuade Covington away from his wrestling intentions early and often, then I see the American – to the dismay of many – being able to wrestle and ride his way down the stretch to a decision victory.

Official pick: Covington by decision

For more on UFC 225, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.

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