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MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down UFC 226’s top bouts, and today, we look at the Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier main event.

UFC 226 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

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Stipe Miocic (18-2 MMA, 12-2 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 246 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: Decision win over Francis Ngannou (Jan. 20, 2018)
• Camp: Strong Style Fight Team (Ohio)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC heavyweight champion
+ Golden Gloves winner
+ NCAA Division 1 wrestler
+ Regional MMA title
+ 14 KO victories
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
+ Good sense inside the pocket
^ Pulls and returns well
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Counters well off of inside parry
+ Solid takedown transitions
^ Favors head-outside singles
+ Good positional rides
^ Active ground striker

Daniel Cormier (20-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 39 Weight: 230 lbs. Reach: 72″
• Last fight: TKO win over Volkan Oezdemir (Jan. 20, 2018)
• Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, CA)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix winner
+ 2x U.S. Olympian (wrestling captain)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Deceptive distance closer
^ Slips and rips way inside
+ Heavy overhands and uppercuts
+ Strong clinch game
^ Effective dirty boxer
+ Diverse takedown game
^ Favors high-crotch single
+ Transitions intelligently on top

Summary:

UFC 226’s main event is a legitimate super fight as reigning heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic welcomes the current light heavyweight champion, Daniel Cormier, back to his original weight class.

Despite his past frustrations of not feeling like he gets enough respect, Miocic has proven his doubters wrong by establishing himself as the baddest man on the planet, currently riding a six-fight winning streak and looking to make a record fourth title defense. Stepping up to the plate is a unique challenger in Cormier, a man who is technically undefeated in this division while holding wins over former UFC champions.

Starting off on the feet, we have a matchup of two fighters who use a lot of the same tools and themes to their high-pressure approach.

Hailing from American Kickboxing Academy, Cormier embodies a similar style to his stablemate, Cain Velasquez. Stalking forward with feints, fakes and measuring jabs, Cormier will slip and rip his way inside. In recent outings, Cormier has also applied a variation of hand-trapping, extending his arms out in order to bait opposition into exchanging with him on his terms.

Often punctuating his presence with hooks up high, the champion has no issues finishing with leg kicks down low. In fact, I think that Cormier has an underrated kicking ability, and I would not be surprised to see him attempt to target Miocic’s legs after seeing what Junior Dos Santos was able to do in that department.

Still, Cormier will need to respect the speed and power that will be coming back at him.

A Golden Gloves boxing winner before he even began his MMA career, Miocic continue to stand out among his contemporaries with his striking. Although Mioicic’s athletic ability and background in wrestling add an undeniable dimension to his game, it is the work that the champion does in small spaces that is so impressive.

Akin to a heavyweight version of Frankie Edgar, Miocic will steadily work behind a series of jabs and feints, stepping slightly off at an angle in search of his counters or followup shots. Moving just as well laterally as he does in and out, Miocic shows a good sense of the action inside the pocket, almost preternaturally pulling and returning his punches.

Whether Miocic is using his patent inside-parries or slick step-offs to the side, his battering ram of a right-hand will force Cormier to try to avoid it. That said, Miocic will need to remain on his best behavior as well, especially considering that his style also allows for oncoming traffic and counters.

Assuming that neither man ices the other in the opening stanzas, then I suspect that a decent portion of this battle will be determined by wrestling exchanges.

There, the similarities between the two continue are evident since they each come from wrestling backgrounds, even preferring similar tools.

A former captain of the U.S. Olympic wrestling team, Cormier is at home whenever operating inside of the clinch. When he isn’t pulling down on heads to deliver uppercuts, the Olympic wrestler is usually reaching down for his favored snatch-single, a takedown that he chains into a high-crotch hike that either allows him to toss his opposition into the air, or turn the corner to take their backs.

Mixing in slick trips while forcing his opponents to balance, Cormier almost feels like he’s coaching a kids class in the way that he makes sure to hit all his sequences step by step. The light-heavyweight champion also has good reactionary takedowns, something that could come in handy against an aggressive counterpart.

Thankfully for Miocic, he came up wrestling in Ohio and eventually became a ranked NCAA Division 1 wrestler at Cleveland State. The American-born Croatian has shown to scramble well when pressured, but more often than not, Miocic is ultimately deciding the wrestling terms in his fights.

Like Cormier, Miocic also uses reactive double-legs or snatch-singles to combat pressuring opponents. Typically finishing his entries by snapping his opponents all the way down (almost like he’s hiking a football), Miocic shows a solid top game that he can go to should he choose to follow the action to the floor. From Miocic’s shoulder pressure and short strikes from half guard to his relentless positional rides, Cormier could get caught in some ugly spots should he falter in this fight.

That said, Cormier, aside from his elite wrestling accolades, is also one of the most transitionally savvy grapplers north of 205 pounds. Even fellow Olympian Dan Henderson, the lighter (albeit older) man, had difficulty in keeping up with Cormier and was ultimately privy to a plethora of positional rides that were ruthless and wearing. If Miocic allows Cormier to dictate any sort of flow early, it could be dangerous for the big picture, as well as possibly cost him positions.

Although Miocic seems near-impossible to hold down, he does tend to turtle hard while scrambling back to his feet. Not only does turtling briefly give your back, but it also exposes your neck to front-headlock attacks, both of which positions that Cormier is very competent from. This constant juxtaposition of transitional threats and positional battles will keep every scramble between these two entertaining as they are important.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the bigger man, listing Miocic -240 and Cormier +200 as of this writing.

As someone who came into this fight favoring Miocic, I can certainly understand the betting line. Not only is Miocic the proverbial bigger man in a matchup that appears to feature two similarly tooled fighters, but Cormier, whether it be through his commentary or recent post-fight interviews, has stated he has wanted nothing to with heavyweight again. And with the almost “buddy-buddy” dealings between Cormier and Miocic that lead to this fight getting signed, I can understand why some may question the light heavyweight champion’s motivation in moving up.

However, at the end of the day, Cormier is a true competitor at his core, one who has proven more than capable of competing and beating the best in the world at this weight class.

Now, don’t let my official pick mislead you: Miocic deserves to be the favorite in this fight, and I already want to slap myself for somehow picking against the baddest man on the planet, yet again.

I promise I have no ire toward the current heavyweight champ, and in fact, have always enjoyed his style. Miocic, from his team to his approach, is a fighter’s fighter who is a treat to be able to watch tape on and perform live. Miocic making Cormier pay for entering the pocket with a pull-counter would not surprise me, nor would him retaining in a dogged decision win.

Nevertheless, there is ultimately one potential factor that ended up swaying my decision. Should neither man knock the other out, then I don’t see either fighter taking or holding the other down easily. For that reason, the better-conditioned man may start to take over midway through the fight. Miocic is a conditioned athlete who has proven he can fight tired, but Cormier, who can also do so, may still be better the better-built man in regards to his grappling gas tank (especially since he doesn’t have to deplete his body from a weight cut).

Anyone who has grappled can attest that it doesn’t necessarily take a bigger man to get you badly tired. In fact, if you’re forced to go with a smaller and faster man for extended periods of time, you may find yourself falling behind in later rounds, even if you’re the more technically skilled person. Now, obviously, this is an MMA fight between two of the highest-level fighters to ever grace the octagon, but those principles still loom large. If Miocic fails to find the finish within the first few rounds, then I see Cormier being able to outwork the heavyweight champ in an ultra-competitive five-round affair.

Official pick: Cormier by decision

For more on UFC 226, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.