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UFC Fight Night 127 main-card breakdown: Leon Edwards looking for home success

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 127’s top bouts. Today, we look at the two fights that open the main card.

UFC Fight Night 127 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London, and the card streams entirely on UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

Tom Duquesnoy (15-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’7″ Age: 24 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
  • Last fight: Decision loss to Cody Stamann (Oct. 7, 2017)
  • Camp: Skarbowsky Gym (France)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ BAMMA bantam and featherweight titles
+ 5x French combat sambo champion
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ Muay Thai experience
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Hard leg kicks and elbows
+ Excellent clinch striker
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Scrambles, sweeps, submissions

Terrion Ware (17-7 MMA, 0-2 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’8″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 71″
  • Last fight: Decision loss to Sean O’Malley (Dec. 1, 2017)
  • Camp: Fight Science (California)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Kyokushin karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume approach
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Puts together punches well
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Improved fundamentals and defense

Summary:

In a potential bantamweight barnburner, Tom Duquesnoy takes on Terrion Ware.

A young prospect whose garnered eyes and expectations in recent years, Duquesnoy will be attempting to bounce back after his second career loss. Looking to spoil those plans is Ware, a fighter who finds himself on the tail end of two competitive losses, desperately in need of a win.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two pressure fighters who apply their games in different ways.

Duquesnoy, the native Frenchman, has a style that smoothly melds sharp and measured techniques, with an almost flamboyancy of flow. A switch-stance fighter, Duquesnoy can be seen fighting from both throughout his career.

Though the 24-year-old seems to prefer a southpaw stance in open space, he arguably does his most damaging work from orthodox, punctuating his presence with crushingly accurate leg kicks. When feeling in stride, Duquesnoy will happily accelerate off of his Thai marches, accentuating kicks with hard hooks that variate to the head and body.

That said, all styles come with a caveat, and Duquesnoy’s inherent aggression makes him available for counters – something that could cost him against a savvy puncher.

Enter Ware.

A calm and composed fighter, Ware’s style also strikes you as someone who has been at this game for longer than his resume suggests. Ware plies more of a boxing-centric style, but his background in Kyokushin karate – an art he’s studied since the age of 5 – shines through in the sense of his comfort and awareness at multiple ranges.

Often working his way in behind a prodding jab, the 31-year-old keeps his right hand at the ready, slipping and ripping on a hair-trigger. Despite doing well at pivoting to safety and finding his spots to maneuver, Ware’s overall comfortability and propensity to shell could be costly against an opponent with slashing elbows.

A modus operandi of Dusesnoy, the Frenchman wields wicked elbows whether he is entering or exiting clinch space, a skill that has not-so-surprisingly emerged from a fighter whose backgrounds are in combat sambo and muay Thai.

More importantly, Duquesnoy possesses underrated trips and level-changing takedowns that have the potential to change the course of this fight. Despite Ware displaying improvements to his counter grappling in recent years, reactionary takedowns still seem to be the pressuring fighter’s common culprit.

Should Duquesnoy get Ware down, then the defenses of the of the American will likely be further tested. Fiery in nature, Duquesnoy has done a better job over the years in sharpening his transitions in regards to setting up strikes or submissions. However, he will likely need to work hard for what gets with Ware, who has upgraded his submission defense and getup game since the earlier portions of his career.

Ware is also no slouch in the offensive grappling department, going for opportunistic submissions or takedowns as they become available. Should Ware end up on top of Duquesnoy, then we could see him force the Frenchman to dig deep in a similar fashion to his last fight (against Cody Stamann). But if Duquesnoy can demonstrate his previous ability to parlay submission attempts into sweeps, then this bout should be back-and-forth throughout.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be forming firm opinions, listing Duqesnoy -350 and Ware +290 as of this writing.

Between the hype on Duquesnoy and the on-paper framing of this fight, I can see why the betting lines continue to widen. Still, I see this being a competitive contest all around.

Ware is an underrated fighter who – despite whatever faults – is durable, savvy and a hard man to stop. He will be wielding a right hand that will be live both coming forward and off the counter, and could prove himself to be a real menace should he be allowed to get going in the later rounds.

Nevertheless, I will still be siding with Duquesnoy. The young fighter seems cerebral in the right ways, and I suspect he will continue his trend of making appropriate fight-to-fight improvements. Duquesnoy’s aggression could get him hurt at boxing range, but I believe his leg kicks at distance and elbows in the clinch will be particularly potent against Ware’s style.

Although I’m not sure he can get the finish, I’m picking Duquesnoy to win this fight. I see him doing enough damage early to get things going his way, and he should have an on-paper edge on the floor if he wants to play things safe and secure the win.

Official pick: Duquesnoy by decision

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